Implementation of fuzzy logic using the tsukamoto method in forecasting the amount of bolu cake production

Jabal Yasir Nasution; Granita

doi:10.30762/f_m.v7i1.2516

Authors

Jabal Yasir Nasution Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Indonesia
Granita Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30762/f_m.v7i1.2516

Keywords:

Fuzzy Logic , Forecasting, Tsukamoto Method, Bolu Cake, Production

Abstract

Rumah produksi berkah bolu merupakan salah satu UMKM yang memproduksi kue bolu di Kota Pekanbaru. Pemilik usaha tersebut kesulitan dalam menentukan jumlah produksi kue karena hanya berdasarkan pada jumlah permintaan yang ada. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut, maka dipilihlah metode fuzzy Tsukamoto karena menggunakan penalaran monoton dalam setiap aturannya. Terdapat 4 tahapan yang dipakai dalam perhitungan metode Tsukamoto yaitu fuzzifikasi, inferensi, komposisi/Agregasi dan defuzzyfikasi. Hasil MAPE yang diperoleh dengan metode fuzzy Tsakomoto adalah 6,91% dan tingkat keakuratan sebesar 93,01%, yang memiliki arti bahwa metode fuzzy Tsukamoto sangat baik dalam memprediksi jumlah produksi, sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai sistem untuk mendukung keputusan dalam penentuan jumlah produksi kue bolu di rumah produksi Berkah Bolu.

The Berkah Bolu Production House is one of the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) that produces bolu cakes in Pekanbaru City. The business owner has difficulty in determining the amount of cake production because it is only based on the number of existing requests. Based on these problems, the Tsukamoto fuzzy method was chosen because it uses monotonous reasoning in each rule. There are 4 stages used in the calculation of the Tsukamoto method, namely fuzzification, inference, composition or aggregation, and defuzzification. The MAPE result obtained by the fuzzy Tsukomoto method is 6.91% and the accuracy level is 93.01%, which means that the fuzzy Tsukamoto method is very good at predicting the amount of production, so it can be used as a decision support system in determining the amount of bolu cake production in the Berkah Bolu Production House.

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